Freight Rate Weekly: Europe Rates: Talk of $4,000, Opening at $3,200
Freight Rate Weekly: Europe Rates: Talk of $4,000, Opening at $3,200
Executive Summary
Carriers filed $4,000 for late October. Five lines opened between $3,006 and $3,725 per 40GP.
| 16.9% |
| 15.2% |
| 9.0% |
| 8.8% |
| 4.9% |
| 15.7% |
| 15% |
Overview
Know both sides before you quote. The carriers published General Rate Increase targets of $4,000 to $4,200 per 40ft container for late October, and Maersk plus CMA CGM went public with $4,000 per 40HQ effective October 19, 2026. Then the systems opened. On October 8, 2026, the online quotes came in at $3,006 with ONE, $3,120 with MSC, $3,200 with Maersk, $3,400 with OOCL and $3,725 with CMA CGM. Same base port. The gap between cheapest and dearest is $719 per container. That is your margin, not theirs.
Bottom line: the notice is what the carrier hopes to collect after Oct. 19. The opening quote is what it will accept for your box today. Do not quote the first number when your booking goes in at the second. Shippers mix the two up in every group chat I read, and it always costs them money.
So split your selling into two buckets. Book what you can move before October 19 at current opening levels. For anything after that date, write $4,000 into the contract as a ceiling clause. The ceiling protects you. A fixed number does not.
Key Details
Put simply, Drewry benchmarks for October 1, 2026 against September 3, 2026 show two worlds. Shanghai to Rotterdam sits at $3,399 per 40ft, down 16.9%. Shanghai to Genoa is $3,702, down 15.2%. Now look east instead of west. Shanghai to Los Angeles is $7,835, up 9.0%. Shanghai to New York is $10,428, up 8.8%. Shanghai to Jebel Ali is $8,662, up 4.9%, and the Intra-Asia Container Index reached $1,518, up 15.7%. Six lanes, one month, two directions.
Why the split? Capacity came back on Europe. More ships transiting Suez means more effective capacity, and rates stay pinned down. The transpacific side is the opposite: 67 sailings from China to the United States were cancelled in October, 71 on the reverse leg, and roughly 15% of October voyages were blanked. Watch out for this one. Blank sailings create tight space fast, and your quote validity is priced against space, not against cargo volume. Keep validity at 7 days. Anything longer and you are carrying the risk for free.
Looking Ahead
Transit from China to North Europe base ports runs 40 to 45 days. The practical cut-off published by freight platforms puts Christmas ocean cargo on board by October 21 or 22, 2026. Today is October 10. That leaves 12 days.
Miss the ship and rail is still there. China-Europe rail slots stay open into late October, but they need booking two weeks ahead. Book today, not next week.
United States cargo does not have this problem. The peak moved through September already. Space is tight, calendars are not.
So book the vessel first, then argue about rates. The catch is simple: space gets released back into the market overnight, while a $4,000 headline stays in everybody's inbox for a month. Quote validity of 7 days protects you when that happens.
Market Outlook
Shippers will keep forwarding rate increase notices, so expect the same conversation for another six weeks. Quote off the opening level, keep validity short, and move Christmas boxes before October 22.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.