Freight Rate Weekly: The Index Fell 0.7 Percent, Your October Bill Went Up 1,500
Freight Rate Weekly: The Index Fell 0.7 Percent, Your October Bill Went Up 1,500
Executive Summary
SCFI slipped, but peak season surcharges on the transpacific just jumped. Which number did you quote?
| 4.9% |
| 2.3% |
| 1.5% |
| 0.3% |
Overview
Start with the lane detail from Sep 30. Europe came in at 2,199 USD/TEU, down 4.9%. The Mediterranean was 2,996 USD/TEU, down 2.3%. The Persian Gulf sat at 6,489 USD/TEU, down 1.5%. S&P Global put the euro area composite PMI at 53.1 in September, the highest since Apr 2023, and cargo did not follow. On the same print, US West reached 7,578 USD/FEU, up 1.5%, and US East 10,528 USD/FEU, up 0.3%. Put simply, the base rate softened and the headline softened with it.
Looks like a slow season.
Key Details
CMA CGM's fourth quarter pricing notice is blunt: from Oct 1, cargo moving from Asia Pacific and India to the US East and West Coasts carries a peak season surcharge of 4,000 USD/FEU. The previous level on Shanghai to Los Angeles was 2,500 USD/FEU. Do the subtraction and you get 1,500 USD per box. The catch is where that line sits on your quotation. Many quotes list ocean freight only, with the PSS either in small print or missing entirely. Your customer reads all-in, then the settlement invoice arrives with 1,500 USD on top. Watch out for that gap, because arguing about it later costs more than the freight.
One line on the quote.
That is the whole fix.
Looking Ahead
Carriers changed the game here. Maersk removed the PSS on Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean from September, across dry, reefer, high cube and open top, so the main Asia-Europe lane genuinely got cheaper. Then from Oct 7 it reinstated a PSS of 250 USD per container on West and East Mediterranean cargo moving on to North America, all equipment types, no exemptions. Frankly, that is the tell. The same carrier is cutting on one lane and adding on another. If you price this year's surcharges off last year's habits, you will be wrong.
Check the lane.
Then check the surcharge.
Implications
Carrier counters are shut through the holiday, so amendments and late SI cannot be processed. Anything unbooked waits until Oct 8. Bottom line, use the days you have. Split your October US bookings into two piles, quotes that include the PSS and quotes that do not, send written confirmation on the first pile and ask the customer on the second. Ask about dwell days too, because detention runs on calendar days.
One more thing. Europe at 2,199 USD/TEU is a level you rarely see. If you have steady European cargo, that is the lane worth a contract conversation, not the one everyone is watching.
Market Outlook
Our read: expect the base rate to stay soft through Oct while surcharges carry the increase, so the gap between quoted and settled cost widens rather than narrows. Quote surcharges explicitly, name who bears them, and fix that in writing before the Oct 8 booking window reopens.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.