Freight Rate Weekly: Europe Rates Fall 4.6% While October GRIs Land at $4,200
Freight Rate Weekly: Europe Rates Fall 4.6% While October GRIs Land at $4,200
Executive Summary
The SCFI composite barely moved on Sep 24, but Shanghai-Europe fell 4.6% to $2,313 per TEU while US East Coast held at $10,497 per FEU.
| 0.03% |
| 4.6% |
| 11% |
| 55% |
| 3.9% |
| 8.8% |
Overview
Here's the thing. The SCFI composite closed at 3,686.62 on Sep 24 2026, down just 0.03% from 3,687.83 a week earlier. That flat number tells you nothing. Shanghai-Europe fell 4.6% to $2,313 per TEU, which works out to $3,547 per FEU, while Shanghai-US West Coast sat at $7,463 per FEU and Shanghai-US East Coast held at $10,497 per FEU. Vessels returning through the Suez Canal keep adding capacity on the Europe lane. (Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Sep 24 2026.)
The index is flat.
Your invoice is not.
Stop quoting off the average.
Key Details
Put simply, the soft patch does not last. Carrier guidance for the first half of October puts Ocean Alliance at $3,100 to $3,350 per FEU, the Gemini Cooperation at $2,835 to $3,435 per FEU and MSC at $3,400 per FEU. Then the general rate increases for Oct 19 to Oct 30 arrive: Maersk at $4,000 per FEU, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd at $4,200 per FEU. If you book in the second half of the month, you pay about $800 more on one 40ft box.
That is $800 on one box.
Do not wait for it to fall.
Looking Ahead
The catch is capacity. Across weeks 39 to 43, carriers have cancelled 77 of 720 planned sailings, an 11% blank rate, and 55% of those blanks sit on the transpacific eastbound lane. Fewer ships is why you still pay near $10,497 per FEU on the US East Coast. On the Europe side, Drewry put Shanghai-Europe at $3,485 per FEU on Sep 24, down 3.9% on the week, and Freightos put China-Europe at $3,376 per FEU on Sep 25, down 8.8%. Three houses, three prints, all falling.
Blank sailings hold the US side up.
Suez tonnage pushes Europe down.
Implications
Bottom line: treat the two trades differently. First, quote Europe off the first-half October guidance near $3,400 per FEU, not off the $3,547 spot print. Second, move anything you can onto a sailing before Oct 19, because the $4,200 number is written into the increase letters, not floated by a broker. Third, watch out for the blank sailings, since 55% of them sit on the transpacific eastbound lane you are booking, and give US space a 7 to 10 day lead.
Quote Europe off October guidance.
Book US space now.
Frankly, do not wait for a lower number.
Market Outlook
We expect the Europe softness to run through the first half of October and the increases to land only partially from Oct 19. Plan Europe cargo before that date, and plan US bookings on the assumption that space, not price, is the constraint.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.