Overview

Start with the lane that fell hardest. Shanghai-Los Angeles took -6% to $7,514/FEU and Shanghai-New York -5% to $9,631/FEU, both coasts down together. Blank sailings on the transpacific moved the other way: 5 this week, 6 scheduled for next week.

Put those two together and it reads. Carriers are pulling capacity and the rate is still falling. Six blank sailings instead of five says they were not planning to sail full anyway. A 6% drop on top of that points at cargo, not space.

The demand side carries a number too. The US National Retail Federation forecasts ocean imports down 11% month on month in November. Capacity out, demand down, same direction. If you are booking November transpacific space, those two numbers tell you more than any advisory.

Key Details

Asia-Europe moved the other way. Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686/FEU and Shanghai-Genoa held at $4,151/FEU. Capacity is being added on that lane: blank sailings drop from 8 this week to 4 next week, and Suez transits reached 62 vessels for the week, the highest of the year. Both moves put capacity back into the market.

A rate that rises while capacity is being added needs checking against what actually traded.

November filings are higher. MSC has published FAK notices covering 1-14 November on Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean. CMA CGM's November Asia export rates: $4,900/40ft to the West Mediterranean, $5,200 to the East Mediterranean and Black Sea, $7,100 to North Africa. Maersk announced on 2026-10-29 an increase on Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean, effective 2026-11-16.

What traded is another matter. Linerlytica notes that spot rates in some markets still sit below the index, and European forwarders report discounts below FAK are still available. Bottom line: that +1% sits on the filed side. You will know by mid-November whether it reached the paid side. The catch is that filed and paid rarely meet in the same week.

Looking Ahead

Intra-Asia runs on its own track. The Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index rose $46 to $1,504/FEU, roughly 200% above the year-earlier level. In the same week Shanghai-Singapore fell 3% to $1,889/FEU and Shanghai-Tanjung Pelepas fell 2% to $2,053/FEU.

The index is double last year while the main intra-Asia lanes slip. The difference sits in the smaller ports. Average waiting time at Ho Chi Minh City went from 8 hours to 22 hours over the fortnight ending week 43. Jakarta stays capacity constrained, and Jakarta-Shanghai rose 9% to $81/container.

Typhoon Champi hit East Asia on 2026-10-23 and moved both schedules and space. If you run Southeast Asia, the index gives you the price and these waiting hours give you the transit. Two different numbers.

Implications

China's own weekly series comes from the Ministry of Transport. Its 2026-10-26 release covering 19-25 October: monitored ports handled 245.612 million tonnes of cargo, down 6.38% on the week, and 6.749 million TEU of containers, down 3.03%.

The week before read differently: 12-18 October came in at 6.960 million TEU, up 1.09% on the week. Containers went from 6.960 million to 6.749 million, a move of -3.03%.

That -3.03% sitting beside the index's -3% looks like one story. It is not. One is a weekly box count at Chinese ports, the other a global rate index. They do not prove each other. What they share is direction: late October outbound volumes were easing.

The signal sits here as well. If the next weekly release prints above 6.960 million TEU, this was a swing back after the holiday. If it keeps falling, the Q4 floor needs repricing. One print only, but it is the only weekly domestic series there is.