Freight Rate Weekly: Intra-Asia Down 3%, Global Up 3%: The Split

Overview

The IACI composite eased 3% to $1,453/40ft on 2026-10-15. The WCI rose 3% to $4,485/40ft the same day. Same publisher, same date, different baskets — the IACI is built from 18 intra-Asia routes, the WCI from east-west headhaul trades.

Drewry is direct about why the trunk side rose: the deteriorating Middle East situation kept Shanghai–Jebel Ali elevated at $8,416/40ft. That single lane is holding the composite up.

Why should you care? Do not price intra-Asia lanes off the WCI. The gap is 3 points and the directions are opposite. If a customer leans on the WCI to push your regional rate down, hand them the IACI. Same house, same week, same basis.

Key Details

Shanghai to Nhava Sheva fell 11% to $3,370/40ft. Shanghai to Busan fell 8% to $1,000/40ft. Shanghai to Singapore fell 7% to $1,973/40ft. Average vessel waiting time in Week 41 moved the same way: Busan 26 hours to 23, Nhava Sheva 42 hours to 24, Singapore 50 hours to 34.

The ordering matches exactly. Once it matches, you stop guessing at causes. Golden Week gave those ports a window to clear backlogs. Ships stopped queueing, schedules firmed up, space stopped being tight. Drewry's own wording is weak demand plus low port congestion — both at once.

Here is the falsifiable bit. If the next IACI print falls again while waiting time stops falling, demand is genuinely weakening. If waiting time climbs back past 40 hours and rates follow, this was a one-off holiday clearing. Watch both and you will know inside a week.

Looking Ahead

Tianjin Port Group reported on 2026-10-08 that over the National Day holiday its dry bulk and general cargo throughput rose 1.4% year on year while container throughput rose 4.9%. Its Pacific International terminal handled the MSC Tessa at 267.55 boxes/hour alongside-ship, a new Shikra record on the Mediterranean–Indian Subcontinent service.

That 267.55 connects to the line above. Nhava Sheva is the Indian Subcontinent hub, where the rate just dropped 11%. Berths at home are getting faster on the very trade where rates are softening. Space loosened; terminal work did not. Keep those two apart when you negotiate.

Implications

First, the next IACI print. It sits at $1,453/40ft and is still 198% higher year on year. A 3% dip is a breath off the top, not a return to last year. Keep that base in mind.

Second, Brent crude. Drewry is explicit on the cost line: Brent has held above $100/barrel since early September, so carrier operating cost has nowhere to fall. Rates stop near the cost floor. Read the two together and you get further than reading either alone.

Drewry expects broadly stable rates in the coming weeks. Our read: this pocket of softness holds into the first week of November, provided waiting time stays under 40 hours. Bottom line — if waiting time goes back over 40 hours, the rates go back up with it.