Policy Radar: EU ETS Hits 100% Coverage, And Only One Carrier Writes It On The Rate Sheet
Policy Radar: EU ETS Hits 100% Coverage, And Only One Carrier Writes It On The Rate Sheet
Executive Summary
Shipping emissions coverage went from 70% in 2025 to 100% in 2026, yet three of the four carriers filing on 2026-10-19 never name ETS as a line item.
| $20/TEU |
| $88/TEU |
| $128/TEU |
| 70% |
| 100% |
| 15% |
| 20% |
| 50% |
Overview
Here's the thing: the phase-in is finished. Shipping entered the EU ETS in 2024, coverage went to 70% in 2025, and as of 2026-01-01 it stands at 100%. Methane and nitrous oxide count from this year. Look at the volume behind the rule. Clarksons and Drewry put 2026 industry compliance cost at $28.6bn to $32.8bn, with average operating cost running 15% to 20% above the 2023 baseline.
One more layer is easy to miss. Intra-EU legs are covered at 100%, while voyages into or out of the EU are covered at 50%. Put simply, the mile inside EU waters costs twice the mile outside it. The IMO Net-Zero Framework slipped again, with March 2028 the earliest it lands, so regional rules are what operators pay until then.
Key Details
The four carriers moving Far East-Europe FAK rates on 2026-10-19 describe their costs differently. CMA CGM lists basic freight, bunker-related surcharges, ETS and low sulphur surcharge. Maersk lists BAS, EFF and LSS. Hapag-Lloyd lists MFR. MSC lists basic freight, GFS and ECA, then bills carbon apart: CLS at $20/TEU, plus CRS at $88/TEU to North Europe and $128/TEU to the Mediterranean.
Watch out for the gap. Maersk's Q4 ETS surcharge runs €148/40ft to North Europe and €114/40ft to the Mediterranean. MSC's CRS runs the other way: $88/TEU to North Europe against $128/TEU to the Mediterranean. Same water. Opposite direction.
Those two lines are not the same calculation. Ask which line carries the carbon before you compare totals, and put what you find on your own quote.
Looking Ahead
Bottom line: copy the cost breakdown from each carrier's 2026-10-19 notice, mark the carbon line, and quote it apart from the FAK. Transit Fruits and Eagle told customers on 2026-10-01 that ETS compliance adds €6/TEU on dry boxes in 2026, and that from 2026-11-01 the surcharge resets monthly against the m-2 carbon average, moving only when the gap exceeds $4.
That reset cycle is the thing to watch. If more carriers follow it, carbon stops being an annual item and starts moving inside the year — you will want the effective date written on every quote you sign.
Market Outlook
Watch EUA through late 2026 and the number of carriers moving to monthly ETS resets. If the price holds and the resets spread, treat the carbon line as a monthly variable in every Asia-Europe quote rather than a surcharge set once a year.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.