Freight Rate Weekly: Blank Sailings Are Moving From Transpacific To Asia-Europe
Freight Rate Weekly: Blank Sailings Are Moving From Transpacific To Asia-Europe
Executive Summary
Two Drewry blank sailing counts both show a 5% cancellation rate, but the mix flipped: Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean went from 33% to 50%.
| 5% |
| 49% |
| 33% |
| 18% |
| 50% |
| 32% |
| 2% |
| 0% |
Overview
Put simply, the cancellation rate is a decoy. Over weeks 41 to 45, running 5 October 2026 to 8 November 2026, Drewry counted 710 planned sailings on the three east-west trades and 39 cancellations. That is about 5%. Transpacific eastbound took 49% of them, Asia-North Europe and the Mediterranean 33%, and transatlantic 18%.
Now look at weeks 42 to 46, from 12 October 2026 to 15 November 2026. There are 713 planned sailings and 34 cancellations. Again about 5%. But the split flipped: Asia-North Europe and the Mediterranean jumped to 50%, transpacific eastbound fell to 32%, and transatlantic stayed at 18%. The change there is 0.
So read the mix, not the headline. Transpacific dropped 17 percentage points. Asia-Europe gained 17 percentage points. Same total, opposite meaning for your booking.
Key Details
Capacity is coming back on that trade, not leaving. Ships that used to run round the Cape are moving back through Suez. Same hull, same days, more sailings. Sea-Intelligence noted that planned Asia-North Europe capacity during the 2026 Golden Week ran well above the usual level, and neither the Golden Week itself nor the week after carried any blank sailings.
Spot rates followed the capacity. Shanghai to Rotterdam sits at $3,337 per FEU, down 2%. Shanghai to Genoa is $3,696 per FEU, down 0%, so flat. Watch out for the gap: capacity rising, spot falling, and carriers cutting sailings to hold the line. That is a carrier defending a rate, not a market running out of space.
Looking Ahead
On the Pacific the carriers are trimming the extra, not the core. When Maersk paused the TPX extra-loader service, weekly capacity on the affected loops dropped by more than 10%. MSC cancelled the GE640E sailing on its EMPIRE Asia to US East Coast service in week 40 and covered it with other loops.
Demand is sliding too. The Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, published 8 October 2026, puts US port imports at about 2.30 million TEU in August, then forecasts 2.28 million in September, 2.25 million in October, 2.00 million in November, 2.02 million in December, 2.07 million in January 2027 and 1.92 million in February 2027. August to February is a drop of 16.5%.
Bottom line: tight transpacific space is made by carriers. Loose Asia-Europe space is made by Suez. Two opposite forces. Do not run one playbook across both.
Implications
One European forwarder put it well: FAK cuts arrived in the first half of October, and increase letters of about $1,000 per 40ft landed for the second half. That is not a carrier contradicting itself. It is blank sailings racing returning capacity.
Here's the signal you can check. Wait for the week 47 list, from 16 November 2026. If the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean share is still near 50%, the Suez capacity has not been absorbed and the $4,500 per 40ft number is soft. If it falls back inside 33%, carriers have genuinely pulled capacity, and that increase holds. Two weeks, one number.
Market Outlook
Track the week 47 blank sailing split and the November US import print. If Europe keeps taking half of all cancellations, treat the October increase letters as negotiable and hold non-urgent cargo. If the share drops back toward 33%, book Asia-Europe space earlier rather than later.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.