Two Days Before the August 1 GRI, Maersk Cuts Its Peak Season Surcharge First
Executive Summary
With the August 1 General Rate Increase (GRI) still two days away, Maersk has already announced a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) reduction effective August 3 on Far East–North Europe and Mediterranean lanes. Early-August FAK quotations from major carriers are flat to lower across the board, and the SCFI has now declined for four consecutive weeks. The signal is clear: pricing power on the Asia–Europe trade is fading, while the Persian Gulf remains the only lane still climbing.
| SCFI Composite Index | 3,062.95 pts | -0.56% WoW (4th straight weekly decline) |
| US West Coast | USD 5,535 / FEU | -3.25% |
| US East Coast | USD 8,040 / FEU | -1.62% |
| North Europe | USD 3,155 / TEU | -1.87% |
| Mediterranean | USD 4,351 / TEU | -2.77% |
| South America | USD 5,453 / TEU | -7.60% (steepest drop) |
| Persian Gulf | USD 4,584 / TEU | +7.45% (only gainer) |
| SCFIS North Europe (settlement) | 3,718.93 pts | -3.5% WoW |
| Drewry WCI Composite | USD 4,374 / FEU | -4% WoW |
Rate Overview: Four Weeks of Decline, Confirmed on the Settlement Side
The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's latest SCFI reading came in at 3,062.95 points, down 0.56% week-on-week — the fourth consecutive weekly decline. By lane: US West Coast at USD 5,535/FEU (-3.25%), US East Coast at USD 8,040/FEU (-1.62%), North Europe at USD 3,155/TEU (-1.87%), Mediterranean at USD 4,351/TEU (-2.77%), and South America leading the decline at USD 5,453/TEU (-7.6%). The only lane moving against the trend was the Persian Gulf, up 7.45% to USD 4,584/TEU.
Settlement-side data confirms the inflection point. The SCFIS North Europe index printed 3,718.93 points on July 27, down 3.5% from the prior period, while Drewry's WCI composite fell 4% for the week to USD 4,374/FEU, with Shanghai–Rotterdam slipping to USD 4,824/FEU. All three benchmarks point in the same direction: the spot market is genuinely softening.
Lane-by-Lane Analysis: Carriers Blink Before the GRI Even Takes Effect
With just two days to go before the August 1 GRI, carriers moved first: Maersk officially announced a reduction in its Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on Far East–North Europe and Mediterranean services effective August 3 — cutting its own surcharge less than 48 hours after the GRI is due to take effect. The momentum behind rate restoration is visibly weakening.
Early-August 40GP quotations on the Europe trade are broadly flat: Hapag-Lloyd and OOCL lowered rates, while CMA CGM, Maersk, ONE, HMM, Evergreen, and COSCO all held steady. MSC was the sole carrier to edge up, raising rates by USD 100 to USD 5,704. Meanwhile, Drewry counts four blank sailings on the Asia–Europe trade next week (two more than the prior week) — carriers are propping up the floor with capacity withdrawals rather than rate increases.
Market Outlook
The next SCFI print lands on July 31 and is widely expected to mark a fifth straight weekly decline. The August 1 GRI is likely to be discounted on arrival: analyst consensus calls for a gradual easing on the Europe trade through early August rather than a sharp correction, as front-loading demand fades and rates revert to supply-demand fundamentals. Barring a significant escalation in blank sailings, expect a mild downward drift on both the Europe and Transpacific lanes into mid-August.
The one exception is the Middle East. The Persian Gulf lane continues to strengthen under the dual disruption of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb tensions, and war risk surcharges remain in place. Shippers moving cargo on Middle East services should secure space and lock in rates early rather than betting on a pullback. For Europe and Transpacific bookings, there is no urgency this week — waiting for post-GRI quotations may well yield better pricing.
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