Rates have fallen for three straight weeks — and the drops are slowing — but carriers have already circled the date: the Aug 1 GRI. The countdown now stands at four days.

TODAY'S TOP MOVER  ·  July 28  ·  FREIGHT RATE WEEKLY

Part of JETWAY's daily freight briefing — published every weekday.

1 · This Week's Rate Overview

The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's latest SCFI closed at 3,062.95 points, down 0.56% week-on-week — the third consecutive weekly decline, but the pace has slowed sharply from 4.27% and 3.28% to under 1%, a clear sign the market is bottoming out.

By trade lane: US West $5,535/FEU (-3.25%), US East $8,040/FEU (-1.62%), Europe $3,155/TEU (-1.87%), Mediterranean $4,351/TEU (-2.77%); the Persian Gulf bucked the trend, rising 7.45% to $4,584/TEU. Near-sea lanes steadied: Southeast Asia $638/TEU (+$10).

2 · A Closer Look at the Moving Lanes

US West is the epicenter of this correction: from $6,630 on July 3 down to $5,535 — a four-week cumulative drop of $1,095 (-16.5%). Extra loaders flooding in and intensifying capacity competition have pushed some carriers' US West ratio pricing to 1:1 — a de facto cut — but only if you book ahead; ad-hoc shipments still pay FAK spot.

Current transaction bands: US Southwest around $5,500–5,800, US Northwest around $6,000, US East $8,000–8,900. The Persian Gulf, by contrast, is the only mainline lane rising against the tide — renewed Middle East tensions and capacity avoidance have tightened supply.

3 · Next Week's Outlook

The biggest variable is the Aug 1 GRI: multiple carriers plan a new round of generalized rate increases. Whether it sticks depends on load factors on the late-July sailings — last week's nine blank sailings removed roughly 175k TEU of capacity, the classic capacity-control play.

Add the Panama Canal's Aug 15 draft cut to 48.5 ft, which further squeezes effective US East capacity, and August looks like a high-level tug-of-war — "can't fall far, can't rise either." But with July demand pulled forward, August bookings normalize, so the GRI will likely only partially land.